With the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet Union it might be thought that the world would be a safer place. Unfortunately this is not so, and there are now more places which are unsafe to visit than ever before. It is true that the number of wars between states has significantly fallen; but sadly the instances of civil war, or situations which fall short of full-scale civil war but where violence or terrorism can erupt without warning, have dramatically increased. Now the bloodshed is caused by AK-47 rifles, machetes and, of course, land mines.

All such situations are included in the global review that follows. This report also takes into account the advice offered by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the United States' State Department; their advice does not always coincide, and often the threat to Americans is seen as greater than that to British travellers.

The end of the Cold War means that the possibility of a Third World War starting in Europe between the forces of the communist world and those of the Western Alliance (NATO), which would probably have escalated into all-out nuclear war, has now disappeared. However, in the developing world, the cessation of superpower hostilities has had a mixed effect. The superpowers, who invariably took sides in any minor Third World conflict or civil war so as to embarrass each other and vie for influence, also made sure that such conflicts did not get out of hand, preventing a direct confrontation between them. So now that the US no longer wishes to be a world policeman, and Russia is unable to be one even in its own sphere of influence, the result is that conflicts are less influenced by outside powers and so are more vicious and bloody than before. And there are more of them.

For a time, the United Nations, finding it easier now to get Security Resolutions passed where once they would have been vetoed by either the US or the USSR, embarked on a record number of peace-keeping missions, some of which were spectacularly unsuccessful. More recently, the threat of Russian and Chinese vetoes in the Security Council has returned, and this has led to the unilateral use of force without UN authority, as in the bombing of Serbia over Kosovo.

Another result of the end of the cold war and the collapse of communism has been the rise in nationalism and religious extremism that re-ignited many long-standing disputes, which communism had kept firmly under control.

Countries do not become automatically safe just because a cease-fire has been arranged, nor even when this is converted into a peace settlement. For many years after fighting stops, the land will still be littered with unexploded bombs and other munitions. Far worse, vast areas are usually highly dangerous to enter because of the hundreds of anti-personnel mines left by the contestants, more often than not without any warning signs. (A number of de-mining groups believe that the UN's estimates are grossly exaggerated - not that this is any comfort to those still being maimed.) There is also often a residue of armed men who can find no other way of life than that of violent crime.

In countries recovering from conflict, fragile political settlements may lead to the rise of terrorism. Terrorist attacks are often aimed at achieving publicity and, as terrorists choose soft targets, these often include tourists and the facilities frequented by them. In such countries, too, poverty often leads to crime: there are a number of countries where the crime rate makes them unsafe for holiday-makers - though potentially less dangerous for business travellers, who are unlikely to leave the centre of major towns.

Europe

Europe is now less dangerous than it was, say, two or three years ago. The terrorist war in Northern Ireland (and to a lesser extent in the UK) appears to be over, though there is the appearance of a rise in the activities of dissident terrorist factions. It was also thought that, in Spain, the Basque separatists ETA had ended their terrorist campaign, but sadly ETA announced that it was resuming its use of violence in its fight for independence; its attacks have now spread over the border into south- west France. Terrorist outbreaks elsewhere in Europe, by dissident groups such as Algerian Islamists or Turkish Kurds seeking international publicity (a bomb in a foreign capital is worth two at home) are much reduced. These are now low-risk dangers and should not deter travellers so long as local advice is heeded.

The Balkans present a more complex picture. In Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia, the fighting has been stopped but ancient hatreds remain. In Bosnia, freedom of movement is meant to be available everywhere, but there are many checkpoints and the Serbian entity (Republika Srpska) is virtually independent. Many landmines still have to be lifted. In Kosovo, tragic events have brought peace and temporary freedom to most of that province, but it is still a dangerous place, particularly in the north and around Mitrovica, a city that is spilt between Albanians and Serbs. (The borders west and south of the city are the scene of Albanian efforts to provoke Serbian action in the predominantly Albanian-populated areas just across the border in Serbia.) There is still a danger from mines and unexploded ammunition and bombs (particularly US cluster bombs, of which a percentage usually fail to explode). The future of the region is uncertain and the next area to see fighting could be Montenegro, which is distancing itself from Belgrade; violence here could drag NATO forces into the conflict as well as neighbouring states. Albania is still a relatively lawless state and the level of poverty there is an incitement to crime. Travel in Serbia and Montenegro is not recommended.

In the Russian Caucasus and in the former Soviet Republics of the Transcaucasus, an uneasy peace exists. The Russians have assaulted Chechnya for a second time, with greater success, but guerrilla warfare is likely to continue for some time - and not just in the mountains, but wherever the Chechens can exact revenge on the Russians. Fortunately, the war has not spilt over into neighbouring republics; nor have any of the other Caucasian Republics followed the Chechen example of breaking away from the Russian Federation. To the south of the Caucasian Mountains, the civil wars in Georgia and over the Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh in Azerbaijan have abated, but the causes of war are not yet resolved and violence could recur at any time.

In Turkey, the Kurdish uprising in the east and south-east of the country continues, but at a lower intensity than before. There is still a very large military presence and clashes still occur.

North Africa

There is still no solution to the long-standing problem of the Western Sahara, which was annexed by Morocco, and has been the scene of many years' fighting between the Moroccan Army and Polisario guerrillas based in Algeria. No progress has been made on holding a UN-monitored referendum on the region's future. Though there is little violence at present, travel to the Western Sahara is still not recommended. The Algerian-Moroccan border is closed.

In Algeria, the vicious struggle between the military government and the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) appears to be over, although some hardliners are still holding out and are being hunted by the army.

The UN ban on air travel to Libya has been lifted since the handover of two Libyans suspected of causing the Lockerbie air disaster. Organised tourist groups are now being allowed to visit the country.

Western and Central Africa

This is still the most conflict-torn region in the world. The Angolan civil war seemed to be over, but the UN has withdrawn its mission after fighting broke out again. In Liberia, the level of violence has decreased substantially, but full peace eludes the several parties to the conflict there, and it remains a dangerous place. In Sierra Leone, five years of civil war appeared to come to an end when the government and the rebels of the Revolutionary United Front reached agreement. However, the implementation of the peace accord is not progressing well and violence has broken out again in various parts of the country. A UN peace-keeping force has been deployed, and the mainly Nigerian-backed West African peace-keeping force that also caused much violence has been withdrawn.

Burundi and Rwanda are beginning to settle down, after periods of genocide and enormous refugee flows, but it remains very unwise to visit these countries. Rwanda's civil war was continued among the many thousands of refugees who fled to the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire). These refugees included many perpetrators of the genocide, and their activities so affected Zaire's Tutsi population that they began their own revolution against President Mobuto's corrupt regime - and overthrew it. However, a counter-revolution then started against the replacement President, Laurence Kabila; six neighbouring states have become embroiled, sending in troops to support one side or the other in the new civil war. It has been feared that the war would spread to those countries, but so far it has not, though their troops still fight in the DRC. Over the Congo River, the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) is also experiencing civil war, as rival factions fight and as guerrillas from the DRC cause trouble.

Civil unrest and army mutinies make it unsafe to travel to the Central African Republic, which experienced two army revolts in 1996 and one in January 1997. The latter was put down by French troops who have now withdrawn, and a UN peace-keeping force has been deployed. Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea Bissau (the border area with Senegal), Mali (the Kayes region and the borders with Niger and Mauritania), parts of Nigeria (particularly Kaduna Province), the border with Mali in Niger, and the Casamance region of Senegal are all dangerous to visit.

East Africa and the Horn of Africa

In southern Sudan, civil war continues and spreads as, for the first time, the mainly Christian Sudan People's Liberation Army receives active backing from Muslim opposition groups.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have been at war since May 1998 over a border dispute at Badame that has spread to other border areas. Now a severe drought has brought famine back to the region. This is affecting Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia, which still remains ungoverned and at the mercy of feuding warlords. Northern Somalia (formerly British Somaliland) is more stable, but seafarers are warned of piracy along the Somali coast. In the Comoros Islands, Anjouan has declared its independence and should not be visited.

In Uganda, the border areas with the DRC and Sudan are unsafe as the civil wars there spill over; also the Ruwenzori region is unsafe because of rebels of the Allied Democratic Front.

Southern Africa

This appears to be one area in the world where there are currently no civil wars. The main worry for travellers must be the high rate of violent crime in South Africa. The civil war in Mozambique ended in 1992, but the country suffers from uncleared landmines and high levels of armed robbery, and now it has been devastated by tropical floods. Namibia's Caprivi and Kavango regions are unsafe to visit, because the Lozi population is rebelling against the Ovambo-led government that rules them, and also because the Angolan civil war has spilled over the border.

The situation in Zimbabwe is still volatile at time of going to press. During and after the parliamentary elections in 2000, President Mugabe encouraged the seizure of white-owned farms, with squatters terrorising farmers and their labour force. Political demonstrations have been attacked by both Mugabe supporters and the police. How events will unfold is difficult to predict. Travel is, in any case, virtually impossible, owing to a shortage of fuel caused by the economic crisis, which in turn was sparked by the costs of Zimbabwe's large-scale military support for President Kabila in the Congolese civil war.

Middle East

At the moment there is a resurgence of violence in Israel and all reports should be checked at the time of travel.

Parts of Lebanon are still unsafe for travellers, though this may change following the withdrawal of the Israeli Army from the south, and the disintegration of its allies in the South Lebanese Army. The Beka'a Valley in the east of the country is used by Hizbollah for its base-camps and training schools and tends to be the target of Israeli retaliatory air raids. There have been clashes in the northern Dannet hills. Only visit the Beka'a, Tyre and Sidon in organised groups.

The Yemen is still considered a dangerous place for travellers as there is the likelihood of kidnapping by tribesmen, who favour capturing foreigners, and many areas are not under government control. Few are likely to want to holiday in Iraq, and it would certainly be unwise to travel in the Kurdish-populated far north, where the Turkish army and air force mount raids against Turkish Kurd rebels close to the border. Britain's Foreign Office does not warn against travel in Iran, although the US State Department does; Iran is improving its relations with its neighbours in the Gulf and lifting many of the restrictions imposed on its own population.

Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent

In early 1995 a new force appeared in the Afghanistan civil war. Known as Taliban, it was originally a movement composed primarily of Islamic students studying at madrassas in northern Pakistan and in southern, Pashtun-populated, Afghanistan. Taliban now controls the country, bar the far north-east, where a mainly Tajik opposition still holds out. Landmines, refugees, food shortages and Islamic intolerance combine to make Afghanistan a no-go area.

In Tajikistan there is talk of peace, but this has not yet materialised. It is estimated that more than 30,000 have died as a result of civil war since 1992, despite the presence of 25,000 Russian troops. The government is weak, with many rebel leaders doing as they please. United Nations staff and other aid workers have been the target of kidnappers.

Nepal is experiencing terrorist threats for the first time, but foreign visitors are not being targeted. The remote western end of the country is the most dangerous area, currently experiencing a Maoist insurgency.

In India, the state of Jammu and Kashmir is still the scene of frequent clashes between the government and Muslim terrorists, who the Indians claim are supported by Pakistan. Exchanges of artillery fire occur regularly across the 'line of control' (the de facto frontier), but there has not been a major incursion into Indian Kashmir since that at Kargil in mid-1999. North-eastern India is a disturbed region and the situation should be checked before visiting Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Sikkim, where separatist movements have been active in the recent past.

In Pakistan, the security situation in Karachi is much improved, where only a short time ago there were serious outbreaks of communal violence caused by Urdu- speaking Muslims who had migrated there from India after the 1947 partition. Elsewhere in Pakistan, the areas bordering Afghanistan, India, Iran and the Kashmir 'line of control' should be avoided.

The Sri Lankan civil war is in its seventeenth year with no apparent reduction in the intensity of fighting between government troops and Tamil Tiger separatists. The north and east of the country are a potential battlefield, and terrorist attacks take place from time to time elsewhere, mainly in Colombo.

South-East Asia

In Myanmar (Burma), the State Peace and Development Council (formerly the State Law and Order Restoration Council) is widely condemned for its human rights record. This military junta enforces its control with torture, execution, forced labour and relocation of ethnic minority groups. There are areas of dissident activity and military operations along the eastern border with China and along the southern border with Laos and Thailand, where non-Burmese tribespeople live.

There have been several cases of banditry on some main roads in Laos recently.

Indonesia is facing a number of separatist movements against whom the government, and particularly the army, have reacted with undue force. East Timor, a former Portuguese colony that Indonesia invaded over 20 years ago, has finally gained independence, which can only encourage separatists elsewhere. There are still a large number of East Timorese refugees, including aggressive, pro-Indonesian militiamen in West Timor. Aceh in the west, the Moluccas (Ambon), and Irian Jaya in the east, have all witnessed violence. There have also been inter-ethnic clashes in West Kalimantan. Tourists had to flee Lombok in 1999, but nearby Bali is considered safe.

The Strait of Malacca, the Java Sea, the Makassar Strait and the Celebes Sea are vulnerable to piracy, with over 60 attacks there reported in 1999.

Islamic insurgency continues in the Philippines. North and South Luzon, western Mindanao and the islands to its south-west, are all affected. In March this year, the Moro Islamic Liberation Army carried out daily attacks for nearly a month and the government has now mounted a strong military campaign. As a result, nearly 100,000 people have fled from their homes in Mindanao.

Central and South America

Once the most violent region of the world, South and Central America have become much safer to visit in recent years. But there are exceptions. Colombia is the scene of fighting between government forces, terrorists of both the FARC and the ELN, and the private armies of drug cartels; the terrorists and the drug barons also fight each other. The fear is that the activities of the drug traffickers and the terrorists will spill over into neighbouring Panama, Ecuador and Venezuela, which have already been used as safe havens and training grounds by the FARC.

Some parts of the interior of Peru still suffer from the terrorist activities of the Sendero Luminoso ('Shining Path') guerrillas, but generally the situation is much improved. Ecuador has very recently witnessed and is recovering from a successful and bloodless coup. Civil disturbance broke out in Bolivia in April 2000; the Zapatista rebellion continues in the Chiapas region of Mexico.

In the Caribbean, Haiti still witnesses large-scale violent crime. The Caribbean is the second-worst area in the world for piracy.

The outlook

Travelling in any of the countries mentioned above obviously carries risks. The risks are not worth taking in those countries which the Foreign and Commonwealth Office advises against visiting.

In many of the countries described, the main centres are relatively, if not entirely, safe to visit. Here, as in many countries not mentioned, the problem is usually violent crime rather than war. It all depends on where you go and when, and this can only be decided just before you travel. 'Discretion is the better part of valour' is just as true for travelling as it is for war. So take and follow advice.

The most up-to-date advice for travellers - and situations can change rapidly - is provided by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, which maintains a Travel Advice Unit (tel 020 7238 4503/4); its website is www.fco.gov.uk/travel. Good advice is also available on BBC 2 Ceefax, page 470. The subjects covered include not just the risks of war but of crime, health, floods and volcanic eruptions. The US State Department website is www.state.gov.